UIUC Quant Brownbag

In dynamic decision-making, individuals may violate core principles of backward induction—such as dynamic, consequential, and strategic consistency—when facing identical choices across time. While prior studies (e.g., Busemeyer et al., 2000) have documented these inconsistencies, their underlying causes remain unclear. We plan to explore the cognitive and psychological mechanisms behind such behavior by examining how individuals perceive and explain their own inconsistent choices. Participants will complete decision-making tasks involving three types of decision trees to elicit inconsistent choices and self-reported rationales. Their self-reported responses will be labeled according to candidate theoretical models—including noise-induced error, shifting subjective utilities, irrational beliefs or emotions, and dynamic decision-making processes—to identify which models may warrant further investigation in explaining actual decision behavior.